As an experienced agent with in-depth market knowledge and a reputation as a tough negotiator, I have a proven track record of helping my buyers secure contracts on their homes within the first three offers, all while ensuring a great price. With the recent NAR settlement changes, the world of real estate is shifting, and now more than ever, having a trusted real estate resource is crucial. I’m here to guide you home. Access my buyer guide through the link below for an overview of the buying process—a must-read for first-time homebuyers or those navigating these new market conditions. Let’s connect and turn your homeownership dreams into reality!

Buyer Guide

California home sales bounced back solidly in July, as prices moderated, and housing supply continued to grow from last year. While the rebound is not a V-shaped recovery, the turn-around is encouraging nevertheless, and offers hope that the boost in sales could kickstart the second half of the year. With the Fed signaling a policy rate cut in September and additional cuts to follow in the near term, mortgage rates will moderate further – albeit slowly- in the next couple quarters. Assuming that the economy will continue to slow but at a gradual pace, the housing market is expected to see more improvement in the next few months.

Housing market kicks off second half of 2024 with a positive note: The housing market bounced back in July as mortgage rates moderated in June and continued the declining trend in July. Home sales in California increased 3.6% from the prior month and were up 4.1% from the same month of last year. The statewide sales figure climbed to the highest level since February and could rise further if rates continue their downward trend. The median price at the state level dipped below $900,000 for the first time in four months, but still recorded a year-over-year growth of 6.5%. Home prices will soften further in coming months as the market transitions into the off season. New active listings increased from a year ago for the seventh consecutive month, with at least 41 counties in California adding more for-sale properties than last year. With rates likely to soften further in coming months, housing supply should continue to see year-over-year growth in the third and fourth quarters.

New home sales reach the highest level in more than a year: Sales of newly constructed single-family homes in the U.S. increased by double-digits in July and rose to the highest level since May 2023, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The sales pace of 739,000 units recorded last month exceeded consensus expectation of 625,000 units, and the jump of 10.6% from June’s revised 668,000 units was the sharpest monthly gain since August 2022. New home sales also edged up 5.6% from the same month of last year and increased 2.6% on a year-to-date basis compared to the first seven months of 2023. On the supply side, the number of for-sale properties dipped to the lowest level in six months, with new home inventory declining to 462,000 units in July. The number of new homes available for sale dropped 1.1% from the prior month but continued to grow from the same month of last year by 8.2%. With mortgage rates declining to the lowest levels since May 2023 and the Fed signaling interest rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, home sales could continue to bounce back in both the new and resale markets in coming months.

Housing affordability dips to lowest level since 2007: Housing affordability in California dipped in the second quarter, with the statewide index for existing single-family homes dropping 3 points quarter-to-quarter to 14% in the second quarter and declining from 12 months ago by 2 percentage points. High prices and elevated mortgage rates continued to keep borrowing costs elevated and pushed California’s affordability down to the lowest level in almost 17 years. The monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home set an all-time high in the second quarter, surging 13.6% from both the prior quarter and from the same quarter a year ago as mortgage rates remained well above the year-ago level. Rates have moderated since July, however, and could soften further if inflation continues to ease in the next few months.

Declining trend in single-family housing starts continues: Residential construction dropped sharply in July, with housing starts falling 6.8% from a month ago in the U.S., according to the latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. At a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.24 million units, housing starts were down 16% from last July’s 1.47 million units. Last month’s decline in residential construction was due primarily to a slide in single-family starts, which pulled back 14.1% from the prior month and fell 14.8% from the same month of last year. Multifamily starts, on the other hand, registered a back-to-back monthly increase in July, but remained down more than 20% from 12 months ago. The expectation of relatively weak home sales was the primary factor for the decline in housing starts in the past couple of months. Builder confidence, in fact, dipped in August for the fourth consecutive month as developers’ concerns about future demand continued to grow, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Builders ramped up incentives in August with 33% of them cutting prices, the highest share so far this year. The sentiment should improve in coming months, however, as the Fed is expected to cut rates multiple times in Q3 and Q4, which should help lower interest rates and spur housing demand.

Consumers are still spending as July retail sales show strength: Despite a slowing job market, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly surged in July after a slight dip in the prior month. Sales of retail and food services increased 1.0% from the prior month to $709.7 billion after declining 0.2% (revised) in June, beating economists’ expectations of a 3.0% growth. Retail sales also increased 2.7% year-over-year last month and the solid gain calmed down fears of a U.S. recession at least temporarily. A jump in sales of autos and motor parts, along with a robust gain in electronics, provided a boost in overall sales in July. A bounce back in building materials and home furnishing also contributed to the increase in retail spending last month. Retail businesses that are tied to the housing sector had been struggling in Q2 but could see some improvement in coming months as rates begin to slow more consistently. The biggest question mark, however, is still the future of the job market. If the unemployment rate continues to climb, consumers will tighten their wallets a bit more for the rest of the year.

California labor markets signaled full steam ahead in the latest jobs report released Friday with hiring posting its best showing in 6 months. However, the underlying details suggest that things may not be as rosy as the headline numbers suggest, which may help to provide cover for the Fed to lower rates later this year. With inflation slowing further in July, mortgage rates continue to rally, and homebuyer demand is finally approaching positive territory for the first time since rates began to rise in 2022. Mortgage delinquency rates remain very low in California and the percentage of homeowners with significant equity to stave off foreclosure in a worst-case scenario remains remarkably high. Fundamentals are also bolstered by the fact homeowners currently have very attractive mortgage payments, with roughly two-thirds of the state in a 4% rate or lower (90% of which are fixed-rate loans).

Inflation is still creeping toward the Fed’s target last month: For the second month in a row, headline inflation was below 3% on a year-to-year basis with July dipping slightly from June. This has helped to bolster hopes that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at their meeting in September. More importantly, core inflation, which excludes certain volatile items, continued its downward trend last month as well. However, service sector prices, wages, and housing costs remain stubbornly high, which prevented more robust progress in the Fed’s war against inflation. While headline inflation is likely to approach 2.5% this year, we expect the declines to remain incremental.

Mortgage rates essentially unchanged below 6.5%: The latest Freddie Mac interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained below 6.5% for the second week in a row, though this figure was released prior to the latest inflation reading last week. Rates have now been below 7% for the past 11 weeks, consecutively, and the bond market is not indicating any near-term reversal of course as 10-year Treasuries remain below 4% currently. In addition, the yield curve is less inverted now than it has been since the Fed began raising rates, which suggests that the bon market is becoming more optimistic about both a rate cut in September as well as a soft landing for the economy.

Buyer demand on the upswing despite seasonal slowing: California typically sees home sales peak in the summer as homebuyers who entered escrow during the so-called “homebuying season” close their transactions prior to school resuming in the fall. This year has followed that typical seasonal pattern, meaning that home sales are beginning to return to lower levels before picking up again next spring. However, when controlling for typical seasonality, homebuyer demand is showing some signs of life. Mortgage applications last week, though still dipping, had their smallest decline this year and their second smallest decline since rates began rising in 2022. In addition, pending sales in July responded sharply to the recent reprieve in rates and should translate into a solid homes sales report in August.

Looks can be deceiving in the latest jobs report for California: California’s labor market had another strong month in July. With 21,000 net new jobs added, last month saw the biggest increase in nonfarm employment since January. However, below the surface, details suggest that the labor market may not be as strong as the headlines would suggest. First, nonfarm jobs are based on a survey of employers and can reflect multiple new jobs even if, theoretically, all of those jobs were filled by a single worker. Recent studies suggest that some workers are picking up multiple jobs, which could inflate overall job growth. Second, and relatedly, the survey of households shows starkly different results. While nonfarm jobs have been rising for 11 of the past 12 months, the number of workers that are employed has fallen by roughly 100,000 over the past 18 months and the number of unemployed workers has gone up by even more: from 858,000 in January last year to over 1 million last month. Even the composition of the 21,000 we did create looks much different than it did 18 months ago with our top 5 largest metros (which account for nearly two-thirds of California’s jobs) growing by an average 1.5% compared with an average of 2.8% in our 10 smallest metros (which only account for 4% of our labor market). This suggests that economic activity could be revised downward later this year, which may help to support additional/larger rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.

Chance for unseasonably strong winter housing market: In addition to the positive response to the housing market as rates have dipped below 6.5%, several other factors could help to heat up California’s housing market during the holiday season. The recent jobs data suggests that a weaker economy may help the Fed to deliver lower rates this winter. The presidential election could also have an effect. Results on the impact of national elections on the market tend to fail most statistical tests, but there is anecdotal evidence that elections could cause the fall housing market to be slightly weaker and then making those sales up in winter as buyers who delayed their purchase until after the election jump back into the market. If inflation continues to improve, the labor market weakness begins to show up in other indicators, and the post-election bounce holds true, California could enjoy an unseasonably strong winter this year.

The Olympics is officially over, and the market’s attention is back on inflation. Two reports on inflation will be released this week and will hopefully provide more evidence that prices remain on a cooling trend. Another report on retail sales is also scheduled to come out before the end of the week and should offer more insights on the well-being of the economy. Mortgage rates had declined to the lowest point since April 2023 before bouncing back up in the last several days, and a positive spin from these reports could help bring them back down.

Homebuying optimism pulled back: Home Purchase Sentiment released by Fannie Mae dipped slightly in July as near record low levels of affordability remained a challenge for homebuyers. The share who said that it is a good time to buy decreased two percentage points to 17% in July after climbing five points to 19% in the prior month. Despite mortgage rates sliding down throughout the month of July, consumer sentiment toward the housing market remained less than optimistic last month. With rates moderating further since a couple of weeks ago and home prices expected to come down as the market transitions into the off season, costs of borrowing should decline in coming months which should help push up homebuyers’ optimism. Indeed, the share of consumers who believed that mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased five percentage points from June’s 24% to July’s 29%. Meanwhile, those who said that it is a good time to sell inched down from 66% in June to 65% in July. The dip in home selling confidence was attributed partly to seasonal factors but the volatility of the rates movement may also have been a contributing factor as well.

Consumers’ short-term inflation expectation unchanged: Consumers’ expectations on inflation a year from now were unchanged in July but were down sharply at the medium-term horizon, according to the latest New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. At the one-year horizon, the median inflation expectation remained stable from the prior month and registered at 3.0%, while the median three-year ahead inflation expectation dropped 0.6 percentage points from June to 2.3% in July. Expectations on the labor market, on the other hand, were less positive, as earnings growth one-year ahead declined 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%, and the likelihood of finding a new job within three months decreased 0.9 percentage points to 52.5%. While the jobs market is showing signs of a slowdown, consumers’ perception on employment remained positive, as the expected likelihood of a higher unemployment rate a year from now decreased one percentage point in July. Debates on whether the economy will go into a recession will continue, but at least for now, consumers are not feeling more concerned about their short-term employment situation.

Jobless claims provide a sigh of relief: Initial claims of unemployment insurance came in lower than expected for the week ended August 3, easing some concerns that the U.S. labor market is suddenly pulling back much faster than anticipated. First-time filing for jobless benefit recorded a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week, a decline of 17,000 from the prior week. Jobless claims had been trending upward throughout the first seven months of the year and the latest increase was due at least partly to the disruptions from Hurricane Beryl and the summer shutdowns of auto plants. The drop in claims in the latest report provided evidence that the jump in claims in the previous week could be due to weather and seasonality, rather than a more fundamental issue. Nevertheless, continuing claims, which run a week behind, remained elevated and reached the highest level since November 7, 2021. So, while the financial market might have overreacted to the pullback in jobs growth reported a couple of weeks ago, the labor market slowdown is real, and we should expect more cooling in hirings in coming months.

Multifamily developers lose confidence in second quarter: Builder confidence has been declining in the past few months and the latest results from the Multifamily Market Survey released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) added more evidence to the sliding trend. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI), which measures developers’ sentiment about current production conditions in the apartment/condo market, dropped 12 points year-over-year to 44 in the second quarter of 2024. With a number below 50 indicating that more respondents feel “poor” about the conditions than those who feel “good”, builders in the multifamily sector are less optimistic than they were a year ago. The Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI), which measure the industry’s perception of occupancies in existing apartments, recorded a more positive reading of 81 but still registered a decline of eight points from a year ago. High interest costs and a surge in supply in the past couple of years have softened the market fundamentals and dimmed builder sentiment. With interest rates likely to decline in the next few months, builder confidence should bounce back before the end of the year.

Mortgage rates inch back up: After dropping to the lowest level in 15 months in the first full week of August, the average 30-Yr. fixed rate mortgage climbed back up by more than 20 basis points (bps) in the last few days, as recent data suggest that the economy remains in decent shape. The return to expansion in the service sector activity, a bounce-back of the stock market, the calming of the financial market volatility, and a stronger-than-expected jobless claims report all contributed to the rebound of mortgage rates in the past week. With more reports on inflation, retail sales, and jobless claims scheduled to be released this week, mortgage rates could see more fluctuations in the coming days.

The summer remains hot, and the Olympics has taken over. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is ready to cut rates for the first time in more than four years in the upcoming September FOMC meeting (or sooner), especially since the last jobs report suggested that the labor market is cooling faster than expected, and the stock market has been reacting negatively to the news. The economy will likely slow down further in coming months, and there have been some talks of a recession, but is it warranted? Mortgage rates, nevertheless, took a deep dive late last week and early this week as traders moved money to safe havens like bonds, sending Treasury yields tumbling down to the lowest levels since February. Should the downward momentum in rates continue, lower costs of borrowing could help push home sales back up in the third and the fourth quarters.

Job growth slows sharply as unemployment reaches highest level since 2021: The labor market slowed more than expected in July and triggered fears that the U.S. economy could go into a recession. Nonfarm payrolls increased just 114k jobs last month, a sharp decline from the downwardly revised gain of 179k recorded in June and well below the consensus expectations of 185k gain. Most of the job growth was in health care (+55k), leisure and hospitality (23k), and the government (+17k). Other industries continued to exhibit signs of cooling, with white-collar jobs like information, financial services and professional and business services all fell in July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% and reached its highest level since October 2021. Wage growth came lower than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year. The slowdown in jobs growth renewed recession fears and triggered the worst sell-off of the year on Wall Street.

Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, but market rout may force early rate cuts: The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged in its July FOMC meeting but hinted that a rate cut is getting close. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that a rate cut could be on the table in the next meeting, as some further progress on inflation has been observed. The central bank noted that the risks to both price stability and full employment – the dual mandate of the Fed – continued to move into better balance and Powell confirmed that there was a growing sense of confidence on the committee that a cut could be made in September. With recession fears sparking market sell-off around the world in the past two days, it is possible though that the Fed could make an emergency rate cut before the next scheduled meeting.

Mortgage rates plunge to 15-month low: Mortgage rates plummeted following last week’s jobs report and speculations that the Fed could cut rates before the next FOMC meeting as recession fears surge. Weaker-than-expected job growth in July sparks concerns that the slowdown could extend to the broader economy and lead to a hard landing. Stock markets around the world dived after the release of the latest jobs report, and the global bond rally accelerated in the last two trading days as investors moved their money to safe-haven bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 40 basis points from a week ago and reached its lowest level since June 2023. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined to 6.34% as of August 5, the lowest level in almost 16 months, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates could stabilize and may even inch back up slightly in the near term, however, as fresh new data suggests that the U.S. service sector was growing at a faster-than-expected pace in July.

Consumers feel down with current conditions but more upbeat with economic outlook: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index ticked up in July to 100.4 from a revised 97.8 in June, as consumers downgraded their current conditions but felt slightly more positive about their short-term outlook. The Present Situation Index declined from 135.3 in June to 133.6 in July, while the Expectation Index improved from 72.8 to 78.2. Americans’ assessment of the current labor market situation, in fact, dropped to the lowest level since March 2021, as fewer monthly job additions might have affected their perspective on current job availability. The share of consumers who expected more jobs to be available in the next six months increased though to 14.5% from 13.1% in June. With interest rates dipping but remaining elevated in July, those who planned to purchase a home fell to a 12-year low. The share, however, could bounce back in late summer if rates continue their downward trend in the next few weeks.

Construction spending drops for the second straight month: U.S. construction spending continued to lose momentum, with the total outlays dropping 0.3% in June, its first back-to-back monthly decline in 20 months. The decline was unexpected as economists had predicted a monthly increase of 0.2% after a previously reported 0.1% dip in May. Residential construction declined on a month-to-month basis for the third time in four months, with the latest drop attributed entirely to the weakness in single-family construction. In June, spending on new single-family dipped 1.2% from May, while new multifamily inched up 0.1% from the prior month. On a year-over-year basis though, new single-family remained sharply higher than a year ago by 9.9%, but new multifamily dipped from 12 months ago by 7.4%. The pullback in overall construction spending was due again by elevated interest rates, as rates started trending back up in mid-June after dropping solidly from late May. Since the last week of July, however, mortgage rates have fallen sharply and could decline further in the coming weeks. The outlook for construction, as such, might have brightened slightly for the next couple of quarters.

Latest inflation data continued to provide hopes that the Fed could begin cutting rates in the near term. The financial market has been reacting positively to the good news and consequently led to mortgage rates dropping more than 30 basis points since early July. With rates trending down in recent weeks, the housing market is seeing more buyers and sellers reentering the market. The momentum could continue if rates begin declining more consistently, and July could become the turning point of a strong second half for the housing market.

Inflation reaches the lowest level in more than three years: A drop in energy prices and a modest increase in food prices led to the first monthly decline in the consumer price index (CPI) since May 2020. The June headline CPI declined 0.1% from the prior month and was up 3% from the same month last year. Excluding energy and food prices, the core CPI rose 0.1% from May and 3.3% from a year ago. Both measures exceeded expectations and recorded the smallest gains since more than three years ago. The slowdown in inflation was broad-based, with core goods prices down once again while core services prices up only 0.1%. The latest inflation data could be one of the most encouraging reports since the Fed first started fighting inflation and might have put the central bank one step closer to reducing the fed funds rate in its September FOMC meeting.

Consumers lower expectation for inflation and home price growth: Consumers expectations on inflation a year from now dipped at the short- and the long-term horizons in June, but up slightly at the medium-term horizon, according to the latest New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. At both the one-year horizon and the five-year horizon, the median inflation expectation recorded a 0.2 percentage point drop from the prior month to 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively. On the other hand, the median three-year ahead inflation expectation gained 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% last month. Consumers also expected home price growth to soften in the next 12 months, with the year-over-year change in price projected to decline to 3.0% in June from 3.3% recorded in May. As interest rates are expected to decline gradually in the next 18 months and housing supply is likely to continue loosening up this year and next year, home prices will continue to grow but at a more moderate pace in 2025.

Mortgage rates reach the lowest level since February: Weaker jobs reports and cooler-than expected inflation data in the past couple of weeks continued to fuel speculations that the first Fed’s rate cut is getting closer and closer as the economy moved into the second half of the year. Interest rates have been declining since the beginning of July and its winning streak had been extended to eighth straight day as of July 15, according to Mortgage News Daily. At 6.81%, the average 30 year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM) reached the lowest level in five months in the mid of July. While the underlying bond market is beginning to exhibit signs of pulling back and rates could inch back up in the coming days, rates could begin declining in a sustainable fashionable if more signals of economic weakness are being observed in the third quarter.

Small business optimism inches up but Main Street remains pessimistic: The sentiment of small business owners improved slightly last month, but their outlook remained dim as the economic momentum slowed down. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed again for the third consecutive month from 90.5 in May to 91.5 in June. While the index has reached the highest level of the year, uncertainty about the economic outlook and the presidential election continued to weigh heavily on smaller firms and kept the index below its 50-year average of 98. Inflation remained the top concern for small business owners, as 21% of them reported inflation as the single most important problem in operating their business. Weakening demand in sales activity was also evident in the latest figures, as the net percent of business owners who reported greater sales in the past three months declined compared to last year’s level and the measure had been down year-over-year every month this year. Higher interest rates and retreating labor demand were also contributing factors to the pessimism despite the latest improvement.

U.S. foreclosures down in the first half of 2024: Foreclosure filings on U.S. properties decreased in the first half of 2024 to 177,431, a decline of 4.4% from the same time period a year ago and a drop of 40.1% from the first six month in 2019, according to ATTOM. Foreclosure activity in the first half of this year was also well below the Great Recession level, with filings in 2024 down 89.2% from the peak of 1.65 million in 2010. The 177k plus properties with foreclosure filings represented 0.13% of all U.S. housing units, unchanged from the level recorded in in 2023, but a dip from 0.22% in 2019. For the month of June, 18,574 properties in the U.S. started the foreclosure process, a drop of 17% from the prior month, and a decline of 22.7% from the same month in 2023. Nationwide, one in every 5,071 properties had a foreclosure filing last month. At the state level, California had 19,013 foreclosure filings in the first six months in 2024, an increase of 6.13% from 17,914 reported in 2023. With home prices reaching record-high levels in the first half of 2024 and the labor market remaining solid this year, foreclosure activity is not expected to increase sharply in the next 12 months.